- Imploding leveraged positions appear to largely explain the spike in UST yields, as inflation expectations have not changed materially while selling by tariff-impacted countries remains orderly.
- Policy uncertainty and heavy debt issuance may continue to breathe volatility into the UST market, especially with the Fed continuing to insist that the reserves position remains ample.
- Indonesia continues to be on the wrong side of the US market implosion, but continuous outflows and the weakening Rupiah may not force BI to abandon its dovish bias.
