- President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff may pose a significant risk to economic growth momentum, both in the US and globally, as the heightened uncertainty could deter investment decisions and weigh on business confidence.
- The Trump administration may adopt a tougher stance when negotiating bilateral trade deals with Asian counterparts, given the relatively low share of US imports in these economies and Washington’s strategic objective to isolate China from the global supply chain.
- While Indonesia’s direct export exposure to the US is relatively limited, the “reciprocal” tariffs’ tail effects—particularly on global commodity prices and China’s external demand—could deliver a disproportionate blow to Indonesia’s balance of payments.
