- Inflation rate went up to 1.03% YoY and 1.65% MoM in Mar-25 as prepaid electricity discount lapsed, but the underlying (ex-electricity, ex-gold) trend remains stable.
- Ramadan effect on inflation has been limited, with some food inflation but transport deflation related to weaker travel demand.
- Global tariffs are likely to be deflationary due to lower commodity prices and re-routing of excess supply, but BI's room to cut rates remains constrained by Fed policy and pressures on Rupiah.
