- Indonesian BoP recorded a surplus of USD 5.9 Bn for Q3-24, up from USD 0.56 Bn in Q2-24. Financial account surplus widened to 6.6 Bn while current account deficit narrowed to USD - 2.2 Bn.
- The decline in CA deficit was primarily caused by seasonal factors, as tourism to Bali increased, the Hajj pilgrimage has passed, and dividend payments to non-residents declined.
- Goods account declined slightly (USD -0.7 Bn) compared to previous quarter, but this largely stems from improvement in our terms of trade, while real exports have declined.
- Strong portfolio inflows in Q3 were driven by anticipation of Fed rate cuts, but things are likely to reverse sharply in Q4 on "Trump trade".
- FDI flows showed genuine improvement and reached post-pandemic high in Q3. Sustained FDI inflows would be necessary to offset volatility in other areas of the BoP.
