- The government appears committed to maintaining a moderate fiscal budget in 2025, aiming to keep the fiscal deficit at 2.53% of GDP as spending growth (5.89% YoY) is expected to lag revenue growth (6.94% YoY).
- Despite the anticipated increase in revenue and external loans, the higher assumption for SBN yields in 2025 suggests that the government faces a pressing need to increase its bond supply in the market.
- The current ambiguity in policy signals and the moderate deficit target provide the government with both the time and flexibility to refine and bring the provisional budget into its final form.
