- The trade surplus increased to USD 2.93 Bn in May 2024 with exports surged by 13.82% MoM (2.86% YoY), while imports also grew 14.82% MoM but declined -8.83% YoY.
- Gold exports rebounded, metal exports continued their robust growth, driven by China’s ongoing manufacturing recovery. However, CPO exports declined due to weakening prices exacerbated by lower soybean oil prices.
- Imports of raw materials and capital goods rebounded, indicating a recovery in manufacturing fueled by robust domestic demand. Consumer goods imports slowed alongside rice imports, though another round of rice imports is expected in H2-24.
- With the metals rally peaking and potential import increases with the recent Permendag 8/2024, Indonesia may face a narrower trade surplus and continued CA deficit. Coupled with the Fed’s hawkish stance, BI will need to remain vigilant and responsive in managing global economic uncertainties in the forthcoming months.
